MAC or Moberly for an at-large?

Discussion in 'Region 16 Board' started by bluff_sideliner, Mar 6, 2017.

  1. bluff_sideliner

    bluff_sideliner Well-Known Member
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    MAC's at-large resume:
    28-3, No. 9 national ranking.
    Two of its losses are to Region 16 champ Three Rivers
    Other loss is to No. 16 Moberly

    Moberly's at-large resume:
    27-5, No. 16 national ranking
    MCCAC champion
    Two losses to No. 12 Indian Hills
    One loss each to Three Rivers and No. 9 MAC
    Two wins against Region 16 champ Three Rivers and one win against No. 9 MAC
    Two wins over Region 4 favorite Highland

    Two things I think hurt Moberly's at-large resume. The big one is the fact that if the 'Hounds get an at-large bid, I think the suspensions would be in effect for the first round. The loss to Penn Valley hurts too.

    Depending on how closely the NJCAA's at-large bids follow the poll, I think MAC has a good chance of getting an at-large bid, especially if there isn't more than an upset (or maybe two) of teams ranked ahead of the Cardinals. Also, if Three Rivers wins Saturday night, that also strengthens MAC's at-large resume.

    All of this said, this is just my $0.02, and should be banked on accordingly... ;);)
     
  2. 4everRaiders3

    4everRaiders3 Well-Known Member
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    Fighting for 1 open spot in my opinion.

    My gut is: (assuming everyone else wins)
    McClennan (29-2) or South Plains (lock)
    South Dakota SCS (29-2) or Indian Hills (probable, both already won their Region) (they play Friday)
    Florida Runner up will get one. (very probable, always does)
    Open



    You need Vincennes to beat Logan
    San Jacinto beat Tyler/Odessa/Trinity Valley (Zone Qualifier so already gets 2) (they could send 3)
    Georgia Highland should roll
    Jones County Already won.
     
  3. bluff_sideliner

    bluff_sideliner Well-Known Member
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    NDSCS and Indian Hills were both ranked behind MAC in the final poll, so MAC might still have a better at-large case than the loser of the Iowa-North Dakota district game.

    Though Jones County won the state championship, the Bobcats still have to win the region tournament.
    http://jcjcathletics.com/news/2017/...holmes-wednesday-in-region-23-tournament.aspx

    NW Florida State has a better at-large case than Eastern Florida State (who was ranked No. 11, two spots behind MAC).

    Odessa is in Region 5 with South Plains and McLennan, which makes that region even more interesting. If either Odessa or Logan win their region/district, that's a game-changer
     
  4. Ubuibme

    Ubuibme Well-Known Member
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    No chance.
     
  5. bluff_sideliner

    bluff_sideliner Well-Known Member
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    I think MAC has a chance unless a lot of the teams ahead of the Cardinals get upset. I think the suspensions (which would be in effect for the opening round at Hutch) probably will smother what chances the 'Hounds have of an at-large bid :(
     
  6. 4everRaiders3

    4everRaiders3 Well-Known Member
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    Sdcs and Indian hills were ahead in last poll but both won their region. I think Mac has a 50/50 chance
     
  7. 4everRaiders3

    4everRaiders3 Well-Known Member
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    You can ignore the 9th ranking because they lost so as of now they have fallen. If a Texas/Florida team is ranked below and wins 2 and loses 1, they will leap frog Mac. Stlll up in air.
     
  8. bluff_sideliner

    bluff_sideliner Well-Known Member
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    1) Between South Plains, McLennan and Odessa, one will likely win Region 5 (also known as NJCAA basketball's answer to SEC football) ;);) South Plains should be an at-large if they get upset, and McLennan should be barring an early upset. Odessa might be far enough down that it will need to win the region to make it to Hutch. If that did happen, it could make McLennan's spot on the bubble more precarious.
    2) Hutch should be in regardless, and I think they will win their region.
    3) NW Florida State has a strong case for an at-large if they get upset in the region tournament; Eastern Florida's case is more precarious. And remember, Eastern Florida is ranked behind MAC, so if it comes down to at-large, both will have region tourney losses.
    4) Between automatic bids and a zone bid, San Jac is in great shape.
    5) If Vincennes is upset in the region tourney, they have a good case as an at-large.
    6) I'm not sure Geogia Highlands is immune to an upset. Gordon State handed them their lone loss, and I believe Gordon is 22-8. The biggest if with Georgia Highlands as an at-large team is potential strength of schedule questions, but I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't get an at-large with a No. 6 final-poll ranking.
    7) The loser of NDSCS (No. 10) and Indian Hills (No. 12) will have a postseason loss, just like MAC, so it could be even between MAC and the District 11 loser for an at-large bid, or a slight edge to MAC.
    8) Anyone further back will have a region or district loss as does MAC.

    It's probably a bit of a tossup, but MAC has a good case unless Odessa beats out both South Plains and McLennan to win Region 5 -- or one of the teams ahead of them in the polls gets beat in regionals. Regardless, it will be interesting the next few days!
     
  9. oldroundballer

    oldroundballer Well-Known Member
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    How bad would a 3R loss hurt Mac's chances? Would 3R then have a better chance at a bid than Mac?
     
  10. Ubuibme

    Ubuibme Well-Known Member
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    If the Raiders lose to Highland they should be seeded 96th.
     
  11. bluff_sideliner

    bluff_sideliner Well-Known Member
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    I'm not sure how much a 3R loss Saturday would hurt MAC's at-large resume, but it might not be enough to keep them out. But I do think that 3R has to win Saturday night to get in the tournament.
    FYI, Butler (KS) almost beat No. 2 Hutch in the region semis last night. A Hutch upset would not have been a good thing for MAC's at-large bid
     
  12. 4everRaiders3

    4everRaiders3 Well-Known Member
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    I think Florida sends 2. Northwest and Eastern Florida.
    I think Texas sends 2. south plains and mcclennan
    South Dakota school of science
    Mineral area.

    Assuming everyone else wins out. Logan could spoil mac with win against Vincennes

    Other Texas is a zone qualifier so sends 2.
     
  13. bluff_sideliner

    bluff_sideliner Well-Known Member
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    NDSCS is a bubble team after losing to Indian Hills tonight.

    The bigger news is that Hutch lost to Coffeyville in overtime tonight. That almost certainly takes an at-large bid off of the table
     

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